Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints25
- Collin SextonAssists11
- Walker KesslerRebounds16
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints27
- Scoot HendersonAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–122
- Q40.0Isaiah Collier bad pass (Donovan Clingan steals)120–122
- Q40.0Donovan Clingan enters the game for Deni Avdija120–122
- Q40.0Jazz Full timeout120–122
- Q40.0Scoot Henderson makes 12-foot two point shot120–122
- Q414.0Lauri Markkanen makes 29-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)120–120
- Q429.0Toumani Camara enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe117–120
- Q429.0Deandre Ayton out of bounds lost ball turnover117–120
- Q429.0Deandre Ayton offensive rebound117–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:42Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 108 – 106 POR · UTAH 41% → 60% +20UTAH 41% → 60%+20 pts
- Q44:24Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)UTAH 108 – 109 POR · POR 39% → 60% +20POR 39% → 60%+20 pts
- Q43:09Deni Avdija makes two point shotUTAH 112 – 113 POR · POR 44% → 60% +16POR 44% → 60%+16 pts
- Q414.0Lauri Markkanen makes 29-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 120 – 120 POR · UTAH 1% → 49% +48UTAH 1% → 49%+48 pts
- Q40.0Scoot Henderson makes 12-foot two point shotUTAH 120 – 122 POR · POR 53% → 100% +47POR 53% → 100%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML UTAH +135 / POR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- POR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- POR: Elo 47.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -145
- UTAH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 115.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1353 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | −29 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −12, Dalano Banton −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +20 Elo | UTAH 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.3 | Points scored | 107.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 116.824th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −9.728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 105.728th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 115.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.214th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−29 Elo- Robert Williams III sprained right ankle−12 Elo
- Dalano Banton bruised left hip−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–15 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 4–1 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.