Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints25
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Charles BasseyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–114
- Q40.0Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 194–114
- Q40.0Charles Bassey shooting foul93–114
- Q40.0Jabari Walker makes driving layup93–114
- Q43.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound91–114
- Q46.1Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot91–114
- Q432.1Scoot Henderson makes two point shot (Duop Reath assists)91–114
- Q442.0Scoot Henderson defensive rebound89–114
- Q444.1Malaki Branham misses 26-foot three point jumper89–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:50Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 23 – 25 SA · POR 22% → 28% +6POR 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q210:57Shaedon Sharpe makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 26 – 27 SA · POR 24% → 30% +6POR 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q210:37Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 26 – 30 SA · SA 70% → 76% +6SA 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q210:05Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)POR 26 – 33 SA · SA 76% → 81% +5SA 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q29:11Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 33 – 33 SA · POR 26% → 33% +6POR 26% → 33%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML POR +225 / SA -275
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6
- SA 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SA: Elo 72.6%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -238
- POR +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.0 – 115.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +28 | POR: Missing Dalano Banton −3 · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +170 Elo | SA 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 111.717th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 113.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.8 | Margin | −1.717th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 110.415th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 112.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−5 Elo- Dalano Banton left hip injury−3 Elo
Spurs
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–12 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.