Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints19
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Toumani CamaraRebounds12
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints27
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–132
- Q43.1Jabari Walker makes 1-foot dunk (Dalano Banton assists)108–132
- Q410.1shot clock turnover106–132
- Q434.1Rayan Rupert makes two point shot (Kris Murray assists)106–132
- Q438.0Rayan Rupert defensive rebound104–132
- Q440.1Naji Marshall misses driving floating jump shot104–132
- Q453.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound104–132
- Q455.1Jabari Walker misses free throw 1 of 1104–132
- Q455.1Kessler Edwards shooting foul104–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three pointer (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 11 – 12 DAL · POR 10% → 13% +3POR 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q10.0Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three pointer (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 31 – 28 DAL · POR 17% → 22% +5POR 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q211:29P.J. Washington makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)POR 31 – 30 DAL · DAL 78% → 81% +3DAL 78% → 81%+3 pts
- Q29:00P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)POR 33 – 38 DAL · DAL 85% → 89% +4DAL 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q28:45Deni Avdija makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 36 – 38 DAL · POR 11% → 15% +4POR 11% → 15%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -12.5
- ML POR +600 / DAL -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -12.5
- DAL 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 88.6%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -636
- POR +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.0 – 121.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +35 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +356 Elo | DAL 88.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 85.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 118.45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 112.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | +6.27th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 116.24th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 110.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 9–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−15 Elo- Robert Williams III left ankle sprain−7 Elo
Mavericks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–13 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–5 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.