Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints17
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints37
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–134
- Q421.1shot clock turnover121–134
- Q443.0Russell Westbrook defensive rebound121–134
- Q447.1Wendell Moore Jr. misses running pullup jump shot121–134
- Q450.1Nikola Jokic turnover121–134
- Q450.1Nikola Jokic offensive charge121–134
- Q41:08Marcus Sasser bad pass (Christian Braun steals)121–134
- Q41:10Pistons offensive team rebound121–134
- Q41:11Jamal Murray blocks Ronald Holland II 's 4-foot driving layup121–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:17Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three pointer (Hunter Tyson assists)DET 36 – 34 DEN · DEN 56% → 62% +7DEN 56% → 62%+7 pts
- Q211:35Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 41 – 38 DEN · DET 34% → 40% +7DET 34% → 40%+7 pts
- Q29:33Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 44 – 40 DEN · DET 36% → 44% +7DET 36% → 44%+7 pts
- Q26:42Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 51 – 49 DEN · DET 32% → 40% +7DET 32% → 40%+7 pts
- Q37:54Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DET 73 – 81 DEN · DEN 76% → 83% +7DEN 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DET +210 / DEN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 68.3%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -221
- DET +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.0 – 120.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | +6 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +133 Elo | DEN 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 119.64th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 117.224th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | +2.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 115.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.820th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–14 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–2 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.