Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- LeBron JamesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–114
- Q41.1Lakers offensive team rebound117–114
- Q42.2LeBron James misses 29-foot three point jumper117–114
- Q43.1Jalen Duren enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.117–114
- Q43.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Malik Beasley117–114
- Q43.1Dalton Knecht enters the game for Rui Hachimura117–114
- Q43.1Gabe Vincent enters the game for Max Christie117–114
- Q43.1Lakers Full timeout117–114
- Q43.1Anthony Davis defensive rebound117–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:13Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotDET 78 – 78 LAL · DET 29% → 38% +9DET 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q35:12Gabe Vincent makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (D'Angelo Russell assists)DET 80 – 81 LAL · LAL 55% → 65% +10LAL 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q33:06Gabe Vincent makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (D'Angelo Russell assists)DET 87 – 86 LAL · LAL 46% → 57% +11LAL 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q411:17Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three pointerDET 96 – 94 LAL · DET 36% → 49% +13DET 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q446.1LeBron James makes driving layupDET 117 – 114 LAL · LAL 2% → 12% +10LAL 2% → 12%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML DET +210 / LAL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 62.9%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -224
- DET +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 114.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −28 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +92 Elo | LAL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 111.120th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 113.718th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.9 | Margin | −2.620th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 110.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 9–36th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–14 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.