Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–99
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)103–99
- Q45.1Rui Hachimura defensive rebound103–99
- Q47.2De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot103–99
- Q49.0Malik Monk enters the game for Alex Len103–99
- Q49.0DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Trey Lyles103–99
- Q49.0Kings Full timeout103–99
- Q49.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2103–99
- Q49.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2102–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q349.1Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 79 – 74 SAC · LAL 53% → 64% +12LAL 53% → 64%+12 pts
- Q331.0De'Aaron Fox makes 30-foot three pointer (Keon Ellis assists)LAL 79 – 77 SAC · SAC 35% → 47% +12SAC 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q411:32Trey Lyles makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)LAL 83 – 80 SAC · SAC 30% → 42% +12SAC 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q411:12LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 86 – 80 SAC · LAL 58% → 70% +12LAL 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q48:44Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)LAL 89 – 85 SAC · SAC 23% → 35% +12SAC 23% → 35%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML LAL +140 / SAC -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2.5
- SAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 59.2%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -151
- LAL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.5 – 116.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | +14 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +65 Elo | SAC 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 116.19th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 113.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.9 | Margin | +2.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 113.58th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.115th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 6–922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–15 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–4 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.