Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds19
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–100
- Q43.1shot clock turnover113–100
- Q427.1Orlando Robinson makes tip shot113–100
- Q427.1Orlando Robinson offensive rebound113–98
- Q430.0Doug McDermott misses 26-foot three point jumper113–98
- Q440.1LeBron James makes driving layup (Austin Reaves assists)113–98
- Q458.1Gabe Vincent enters the game for Anthony Davis111–98
- Q458.1Orlando Robinson enters the game for Keegan Murray111–98
- Q458.1Isaac Jones enters the game for Domantas Sabonis111–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:47D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three pointer (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 77 – 74 SAC · LAL 42% → 53% +10LAL 42% → 53%+10 pts
- Q31:14Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)LAL 84 – 80 SAC · SAC 30% → 41% +11SAC 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q411:14Gabe Vincent makes 26-foot three point jumperLAL 89 – 82 SAC · LAL 61% → 72% +12LAL 61% → 72%+12 pts
- Q48:00De'Aaron Fox makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)LAL 93 – 90 SAC · SAC 31% → 40% +9SAC 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q47:43Austin Reaves makes 9-foot two point shotLAL 95 – 90 SAC · LAL 60% → 70% +10LAL 60% → 70%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -4.5
- ML LAL +160 / SAC -195
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 66.5%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -172
- LAL +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.0 – 117.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +25 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +119 Elo | SAC 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 116.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 113.717th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.5 | Margin | +3.011th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 114.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 6–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–4 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.