Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists4
- Keegan MurrayRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound114–113
- Q41.0De'Aaron Fox misses 52-foot three point pullup jump shot114–113
- Q43.0Jaden Ivey makes free throw 1 of 1114–113
- Q43.0DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Keon Ellis113–113
- Q43.0Ausar Thompson enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.113–113
- Q43.0Jalen Duren enters the game for Tobias Harris113–113
- Q43.0(00:03.1) [Pistons] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)113–113
- Q43.0De'Aaron Fox shooting foul113–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:04Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 108 – 109 SAC · DET 7% → 34% +27DET 7% → 34%+27 pts
- Q419.0De'Aaron Fox makes 14-foot pullup jump shotDET 108 – 111 SAC · SAC 75% → 97% +23SAC 75% → 97%+23 pts
- Q414.1Jaden Ivey makes driving layupDET 110 – 111 SAC · DET 1% → 22% +21DET 1% → 22%+21 pts
- Q43.0Jaden Ivey makes 23-foot three pointer (Malik Beasley assists)DET 113 – 113 SAC · DET <1% → 50% +50DET <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q43.0Jaden Ivey makes free throw 1 of 1DET 114 – 113 SAC · DET 50% → 95% +45DET 50% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -4.5
- ML DET +160 / SAC -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.7 pts
- SAC: Elo 50.7%, market 63.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -173
- DET +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.5 – 116.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −50 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +5 Elo | SAC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 63.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 114.89th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 113.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 112.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 6–1125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–14 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.