Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints19
- T.J. McConnellAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints23
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–95
- Q413.1James Johnson defensive rebound122–95
- Q416.1Orlando Robinson misses 26-foot three point jumper122–95
- Q424.0shot clock turnover122–95
- Q444.0Thomas Bryant defensive rebound122–95
- Q449.0Orlando Robinson misses 6-foot hook shot122–95
- Q41:01James Johnson back court turnover122–95
- Q41:14Colby Jones makes 9-foot two point shot122–95
- Q41:21Johnny Furphy kicked ball violation122–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q255.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 29-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 52 – 47 SAC · IND 51% → 60% +9IND 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q221.0Malik Monk makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)IND 52 – 50 SAC · SAC 40% → 49% +9SAC 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q39:10Keegan Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)IND 61 – 57 SAC · SAC 33% → 42% +9SAC 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q37:55Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 64 – 57 SAC · IND 59% → 68% +9IND 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q312.0Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 87 – 78 SAC · IND 71% → 80% +10IND 71% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML IND +120 / SAC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- SAC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 56.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -128
- IND +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.5 – 119.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | +14 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +42 Elo | SAC 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 115.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 113.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.4 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 113.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 111.013th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 6–1024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–17 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.