Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds8
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints23
- Collin SextonAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–111
- Q41.0Drew Eubanks bad pass (Joel Embiid steals)114–111
- Q42.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2114–111
- Q42.1Caleb Martin enters the game for Kyle Lowry113–111
- Q42.1Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Walker Kessler113–111
- Q42.1Drew Eubanks enters the game for Cody Williams113–111
- Q42.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2113–111
- Q42.1Cody Williams personal take foul112–111
- Q44.0Walker Kessler enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh112–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:02Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 92 – 94 UTAH · UTAH 36% → 50% +15UTAH 36% → 50%+15 pts
- Q43:15Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 105 – 103 UTAH · PHI 48% → 71% +23PHI 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q42:08Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 108 – 105 UTAH · PHI 55% → 81% +26PHI 55% → 81%+26 pts
- Q41:51Lauri Markkanen makes driving layup (Collin Sexton assists)PHI 108 – 107 UTAH · UTAH 18% → 35% +17UTAH 18% → 35%+17 pts
- Q41:38Joel Embiid makes 16-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 110 – 108 UTAH · PHI 54% → 75% +21PHI 54% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML PHI -300 / UTAH +250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 65.7%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -263
- UTAH +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 116.0 – 108.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | −16 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +113 Elo | PHI 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 110.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 119.628th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.2 | Margin | −8.927th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 118.130th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 2–1030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–17 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | — |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.