Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists12
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Payton PritchardAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–114
- Q41.1Derrick White steps out of bounds turnover118–114
- Q42.1Celtics Full timeout118–114
- Q42.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2118–114
- Q42.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2117–114
- Q42.1Jayson Tatum personal take foul116–114
- Q44.2Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Derrick White assists)116–114
- Q46.0Celtics Full timeout116–111
- Q46.0Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2116–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:59Caleb Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 85 – 84 BOS · PHI 28% → 40% +12PHI 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q49:54Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 90 – 84 BOS · PHI 50% → 63% +13PHI 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q48:06Kyle Lowry makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 97 – 86 BOS · PHI 76% → 86% +10PHI 76% → 86%+10 pts
- Q42:43Derrick White makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Al Horford assists)PHI 108 – 103 BOS · BOS 6% → 18% +12BOS 6% → 18%+12 pts
- Q42:27Al Horford makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylen Brown assists)PHI 108 – 105 BOS · BOS 16% → 30% +14BOS 16% → 30%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML PHI +340 / BOS -450
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.9%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -360
- PHI +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.5 – 116.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1653 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +21 | PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +209 Elo | BOS 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 119.14th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 109.67th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.5 | Margin | +9.54th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 117.23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 107.87th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 11–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+46 Elo- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−4 Elo
Celtics
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–17 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.