San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–111
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound106–111
- Q42.0Julian Champagnie misses 27-foot three point shot106–111
- Q44.0Chris Paul defensive rebound106–111
- Q46.1Kelly Oubre Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2106–111
- Q46.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2106–111
- Q46.1Jeremy Sochan personal take foul106–110
- Q48.2Julian Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)106–110
- Q414.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes two point shot103–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:39Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 98 – 98 PHI · SA 25% → 45% +21SA 25% → 45%+21 pts
- Q43:10Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot three point jumperSA 101 – 100 PHI · SA 30% → 54% +23SA 30% → 54%+23 pts
- Q41:20Chris Paul makes 20-foot two point shotSA 103 – 102 PHI · SA 35% → 60% +24SA 35% → 60%+24 pts
- Q459.0Tyrese Maxey makes dunkSA 103 – 104 PHI · PHI 38% → 66% +28PHI 38% → 66%+28 pts
- Q430.1Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointerSA 103 – 107 PHI · PHI 71% → 98% +27PHI 71% → 98%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML SA +185 / PHI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -197
- SA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 106.0 – 111.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +40 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 105.730th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.610th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −4.823rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 106.627th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 111.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 4–926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–15 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.