San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints42
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints41
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–117
- Q40.1Josh Hart offensive rebound114–117
- Q43.2OG Anunoby misses 24-foot three point jumper114–117
- Q417.1Josh Hart offensive rebound114–117
- Q421.1Jalen Brunson misses 15-foot pullup jump shot114–117
- Q438.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Precious Achiuwa114–117
- Q438.1Knicks Full timeout114–117
- Q438.1Knicks Full timeout114–117
- Q441.1Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointer114–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:18Josh Hart makes 27-foot three pointer (Mikal Bridges assists)SA 102 – 100 NY · NY 29% → 47% +18NY 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q44:56OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)SA 102 – 103 NY · NY 46% → 65% +19NY 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q43:04Jeremy Sochan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 109 – 109 NY · SA 21% → 43% +22SA 21% → 43%+22 pts
- Q42:43Miles McBride makes 25-foot three pointerSA 109 – 112 NY · NY 57% → 79% +23NY 57% → 79%+23 pts
- Q41:59Mikal Bridges makes 10-foot two point shotSA 111 – 114 NY · NY 65% → 82% +16NY 65% → 82%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML SA +290 / NY -370
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NY: Elo 72.1%, market 75.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -307
- SA +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 107.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +23 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +165 Elo | NY 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 75.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 117.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 109.98th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +7.45th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 119.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–7 | Road vs home | 9–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–15 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–1 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.