San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints35
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints41
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–110
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound113–110
- Q40.0Michael Porter Jr. misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot113–110
- Q41.1Devin Vassell makes 1-foot dunk113–110
- Q44.1Nikola Jokic bad pass (Victor Wembanyama steals)111–110
- Q417.0Nuggets Full timeout111–110
- Q417.0Julian Champagnie steps out of bounds turnover111–110
- Q434.1Devin Vassell defensive rebound111–110
- Q437.0Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point jumper111–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:06Christian Braun makes three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)SA 103 – 106 DEN · DEN 54% → 77% +22DEN 54% → 77%+22 pts
- Q41:58Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Chris Paul assists)SA 106 – 108 DEN · SA 8% → 27% +19SA 8% → 27%+19 pts
- Q41:28Keldon Johnson makes layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 108 – 108 DEN · SA 25% → 47% +22SA 25% → 47%+22 pts
- Q41:18Nikola Jokic makes 3-foot two point shotSA 109 – 110 DEN · DEN 40% → 65% +25DEN 40% → 65%+25 pts
- Q454.0Chris Paul makes 7-foot two point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 111 – 110 DEN · SA 33% → 63% +30SA 33% → 63%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML SA +190 / DEN -230
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 65.0%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -202
- SA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.5 – 122.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +17 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +108 Elo | DEN 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 121.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 117.624th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +3.58th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 116.34th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 103.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–15 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–3 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.