LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints17
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists4
- Ivica ZubacRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Victor WembanyamaAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–122
- Q421.1Amir Coffey makes dunk (Jordan Miller assists)86–122
- Q421.1Jordan Miller defensive rebound84–122
- Q424.1Kobe Brown blocks Charles Bassey 's 1-foot alley oop dunk shot84–122
- Q429.0Malaki Branham defensive rebound84–122
- Q433.1Kai Jones misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot84–122
- Q441.0Kai Jones defensive rebound84–122
- Q443.1Sidy Cissoko misses 25-foot three point jumper84–122
- Q456.1Kai Jones makes 1-foot dunk (Bones Hyland assists)84–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35Victor Wembanyama makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)LAC 0 – 6 SA · SA 65% → 70% +6SA 65% → 70%+6 pts
- Q19:18James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 3 – 6 SA · LAC 30% → 35% +6LAC 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q14:52Kris Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 11 – 18 SA · LAC 22% → 27% +5LAC 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q12:16James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)LAC 15 – 20 SA · LAC 25% → 31% +6LAC 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q29:18Amir Coffey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)LAC 25 – 36 SA · LAC 14% → 19% +5LAC 14% → 19%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML LAC +135 / SA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- SA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- SA: Elo 46.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -143
- LAC +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.5 – 111.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | +43 | LAC: Usual rotation · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +23 Elo | LAC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.6 | Points scored | 111.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.3 | Points allowed | 112.014th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.816th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 110.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 111.014th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.4 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 11–714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–12 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–0 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.