LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints35
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds16
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints33
- Dejounte MurrayAssists8
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–113
- Q41.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2116–113
- Q41.1Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac115–113
- Q41.1CJ McCollum enters the game for Daniel Theis115–113
- Q41.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2115–113
- Q41.1Herbert Jones personal foul114–113
- Q44.1Ivica Zubac vs. Yves Missi (James Harden gains possession)114–113
- Q44.1(00:04.3) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)114–113
- Q44.1Clippers defensive team rebound114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:19CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointer (Daniel Theis assists)LAC 98 – 102 NO · NO 50% → 66% +16NO 50% → 66%+16 pts
- Q43:46Norman Powell makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 110 – 108 NO · LAC 46% → 68% +22LAC 46% → 68%+22 pts
- Q42:16CJ McCollum makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Herbert Jones assists)LAC 112 – 112 NO · NO 29% → 47% +18NO 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q417.2James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2LAC 113 – 112 NO · LAC 51% → 76% +25LAC 51% → 76%+25 pts
- Q417.2James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2LAC 114 – 112 NO · LAC 76% → 92% +16LAC 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML LAC -185 / NO +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 75.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -166
- NO +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.0 – 107.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −58 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +192 Elo | LAC 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 106.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 118.025th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −11.529th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 105.129th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 116.428th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 4–1329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−58 Elo- Jose Alvarado left hamstring strain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–11 | 11–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–2 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 11–20 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–3 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.