Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Herbert JonesAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–111
- Q421.1Jeff Green defensive rebound128–111
- Q424.0Brandon Boston misses 22-foot pullup jump shot128–111
- Q435.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2128–111
- Q435.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2127–111
- Q435.1Brandon Boston personal foul126–111
- Q447.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes free throw 1 of 1126–111
- Q447.1Jeff Green shooting foul126–110
- Q447.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes two point shot126–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 3 – 0 NO · HOU 71% → 76% +5HOU 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q19:12Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three pointer (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 10 – 4 NO · HOU 76% → 80% +5HOU 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:31Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumperHOU 19 – 12 NO · HOU 77% → 82% +5HOU 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q14:49Jalen Green makes driving layupHOU 23 – 18 NO · HOU 75% → 79% +3HOU 75% → 79%+3 pts
- Q11:34Cam Whitmore makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 32 – 20 NO · HOU 85% → 88% +4HOU 85% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -285 / NO +230
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8.5
- HOU 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 80.1%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -244
- NO +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.0 – 107.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −66 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +242 Elo | HOU 80.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 105.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.3 | Points allowed | 117.225th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.6 | Margin | −11.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 104.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Defense rating | 116.228th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 4–1128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+30 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−15 Elo
Pelicans
−66 Elo- Jose Alvarado left hamstring strain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–11 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–8 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.