Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points21
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–101
- Q413.1Moussa Diabate makes shot (Isaiah Wong assists)114–101
- Q423.1Aaron Holiday technical foul114–99
- Q423.1Aaron Holiday ejected114–99
- Q423.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Aaron Holiday114–99
- Q423.1Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2114–99
- Q423.1Hornets offensive team rebound114–98
- Q423.1Nick Smith Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2114–98
- Q423.1Aaron Holiday technical foul114–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27Jabari Smith Jr. makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 2 – 0 CHA · HOU 66% → 70% +4HOU 66% → 70%+4 pts
- Q15:38LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 12 – 10 CHA · CHA 25% → 31% +6CHA 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q15:28Amen Thompson makes 6-foot two point shotHOU 14 – 10 CHA · HOU 69% → 73% +4HOU 69% → 73%+4 pts
- Q15:08Fred VanVleet makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotHOU 17 – 10 CHA · HOU 73% → 78% +5HOU 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q12:47Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)HOU 24 – 10 CHA · HOU 85% → 88% +4HOU 85% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -230 / CHA +185
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 71.6%, market 66.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -199
- CHA +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.5 – 107.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1338 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +29 | +22 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +160 Elo | HOU 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 106.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 113.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −6.426th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 106.726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Defense rating | 113.021st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 5th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 5–1025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–11 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.