Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points33
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints35
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Daniel TheisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–124
- Q42.1Jaylen Wells defensive rebound132–124
- Q45.1Trey Murphy III misses driving floating jump shot132–124
- Q48.1Pelicans Full timeout132–124
- Q48.1Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2132–124
- Q48.1Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2131–124
- Q48.1Dejounte Murray personal foul130–124
- Q49.2Dejounte Murray makes 27-foot three pointer130–124
- Q416.1Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2130–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:35Trey Murphy III makes 22-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)MEM 16 – 11 NO · NO 17% → 21% +5NO 17% → 21%+5 pts
- Q13:14Jay Huff makes 23-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 24 – 17 NO · MEM 77% → 82% +5MEM 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q22:31Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 62 – 56 NO · MEM 73% → 80% +6MEM 73% → 80%+6 pts
- Q21:59Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 65 – 59 NO · MEM 73% → 80% +7MEM 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q21:27Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 68 – 59 NO · MEM 80% → 85% +6MEM 80% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -7.5
- ML MEM -280 / NO +230
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -10.5
- MEM 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.5 pts
- MEM: Elo 84.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -243
- NO +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 123.0 – 115.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +108 | −71 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +292 Elo | MEM 84.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.7 | Points scored | 105.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 117.525th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.3 | Margin | −11.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 104.929th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 116.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.6 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 4–1229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+108 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–10 | 11–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–8 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–12 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–2 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.