Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints34
- Jonathan KumingaAssists5
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds10
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints26
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–102
- Q40.2shot clock turnover92–102
- Q423.0Ivica Zubac defensive rebound92–102
- Q426.1Quinten Post misses 28-foot three point jumper92–102
- Q432.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 292–102
- Q432.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 292–101
- Q432.1Moses Moody personal take foul92–100
- Q435.2Clippers Full timeout92–100
- Q435.2Moses Moody makes 2-foot dunk92–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:31James Harden makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 41 – 43 LAC · LAC 58% → 66% +8LAC 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q43:37Jonathan Kuminga makes two point shot (Lindy Waters III assists)GS 83 – 87 LAC · GS 11% → 19% +9GS 11% → 19%+9 pts
- Q43:13Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)GS 83 – 90 LAC · LAC 82% → 93% +12LAC 82% → 93%+12 pts
- Q42:30Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 88 – 91 LAC · GS 7% → 22% +15GS 7% → 22%+15 pts
- Q42:04James Harden makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotGS 88 – 93 LAC · LAC 80% → 91% +11LAC 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML GS +175 / LAC -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 69.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -186
- GS +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 103.5 – 109.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −57 | 0 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +146 Elo | LAC 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 109.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 107.65th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 109.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 107.66th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.522nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 10–612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–13 | 19–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–5 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.