Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–105
- Q43.1Myles Turner defensive rebound111–105
- Q47.0Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point jumper111–105
- Q48.0T.J. McConnell enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton111–105
- Q48.0Stephen Curry enters the game for Kevon Looney111–105
- Q48.0Buddy Hield enters the game for Dennis Schroder111–105
- Q48.0Warriors Full timeout111–105
- Q48.0Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2111–105
- Q48.0Kevon Looney enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga110–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:19Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)IND 93 – 95 GS · GS 51% → 66% +15GS 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q43:45Myles Turner makes 12-foot jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 100 – 97 GS · IND 53% → 67% +14IND 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q43:02Myles Turner makes two point shotIND 102 – 99 GS · IND 54% → 70% +16IND 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q41:27Andrew Nembhard makes 4-foot two point shotIND 106 – 102 GS · IND 70% → 87% +17IND 70% → 87%+17 pts
- Q41:18Dennis Schroder makes layup (Stephen Curry assists)IND 106 – 104 GS · GS 12% → 29% +17GS 12% → 29%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -5.5
- ML IND +180 / GS -215
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- GS: Elo 67.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -191
- IND +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.5 – 118.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −12 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +123 Elo | GS 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.113th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 110.812th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.614th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 108.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–11 | Road vs home | 7–517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–17 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–12 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.