Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints31
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Austin ReavesRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints38
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Andrew WigginsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–113
- Q41.1Austin Reaves makes driving layup115–113
- Q46.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Buddy Hield113–113
- Q46.1Lakers Full timeout113–113
- Q47.1Stephen Curry makes 31-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)113–113
- Q48.2Buddy Hield enters the game for Kevon Looney113–110
- Q48.2Warriors Full timeout113–110
- Q48.2Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2113–110
- Q48.2Kevon Looney enters the game for Buddy Hield112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:16Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)LAL 100 – 94 GS · LAL 67% → 83% +16LAL 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q412.2Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)LAL 111 – 110 GS · GS <1% → 22% +22GS <1% → 22%+22 pts
- Q48.2Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2LAL 112 – 110 GS · LAL 83% → 97% +14LAL 83% → 97%+14 pts
- Q47.1Stephen Curry makes 31-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)LAL 113 – 113 GS · GS <1% → 51% +50GS <1% → 51%+50 pts
- Q41.1Austin Reaves makes driving layupLAL 115 – 113 GS · LAL 50% → >99% +50LAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML LAL +145 / GS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- GS: Elo 61.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -154
- LAL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 108.0 – 112.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | −12 | LAL: Missing D'Angelo Russell −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +80 Elo | GS 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 112.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 110.812th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 110.515th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 108.58th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 7–618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−34 Elo- D'Angelo Russell sprained left thumb−9 Elo
Warriors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–16 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–3 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.