San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints19
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Jeremy SochanRebounds14
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints25
- Shake MiltonAssists12
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–87
- Q48.1Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound96–87
- Q411.1Tyrese Martin misses 25-foot three point jumper96–87
- Q414.2shot clock turnover96–87
- Q437.1Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound96–87
- Q440.1Nic Claxton misses 23-foot three point jumper96–87
- Q443.2Chris Paul personal foul96–87
- Q443.2Tyrese Martin defensive rebound96–87
- Q446.0Chris Paul misses driving floating jump shot96–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:34Shake Milton makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)SA 41 – 44 BKN · BKN 33% → 41% +8BKN 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q310:12Jalen Wilson makes 26-foot three point shot (Shake Milton assists)SA 45 – 47 BKN · BKN 30% → 39% +8BKN 30% → 39%+8 pts
- Q39:12Victor Wembanyama makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 50 – 49 BKN · SA 61% → 69% +9SA 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q37:46Victor Wembanyama makes 30-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 53 – 51 BKN · SA 63% → 72% +9SA 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q37:13Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Chris Paul assists)SA 56 – 51 BKN · SA 72% → 79% +8SA 72% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -7.5
- ML SA -340 / BKN +270
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4
- SA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- SA: Elo 66.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -286
- BKN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.5 – 103.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | −58 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cameron Johnson −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +117 Elo | SA 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 108.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 113.718th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 109.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 5–821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−58 Elo- Cameron Johnson right hip contusion−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–15 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–1 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.