Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints29
- Ben SimmonsAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Bucks- Khris MiddletonPoints21
- Khris MiddletonAssists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–105
- Q417.0Khris Middleton out of bounds lost ball turnover111–105
- Q423.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2111–105
- Q423.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2110–105
- Q423.1Khris Middleton personal foul109–105
- Q423.1Cameron Johnson defensive rebound109–105
- Q425.1Khris Middleton misses 30-foot three point shot109–105
- Q429.1Noah Clowney turnover109–105
- Q429.1Noah Clowney offensive foul109–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:07Shake Milton makes 26-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 92 – 93 MIL · BKN 23% → 37% +14BKN 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q43:40Keon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 99 – 97 MIL · BKN 37% → 59% +22BKN 37% → 59%+22 pts
- Q43:02Khris Middleton makes 7-foot two point shotBKN 99 – 99 MIL · MIL 39% → 55% +16MIL 39% → 55%+16 pts
- Q42:33Noah Clowney makes 28-foot jump bank shotBKN 102 – 99 MIL · BKN 45% → 71% +26BKN 45% → 71%+26 pts
- Q41:06Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 105 – 102 MIL · MIL 2% → 17% +15MIL 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML BKN +210 / MIL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.7%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -224
- BKN +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 99.5 – 106.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 205.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −113 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +98 Elo | MIL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 112.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 110.19th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 109.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–10 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–12 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.