San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Chris PaulAssists14
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Timberwolves- Donte DiVincenzoPoints26
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–112
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)110–112
- Q41.0Spurs offensive team rebound110–112
- Q42.0Jeremy Sochan misses 25-foot three point jumper110–112
- Q412.1Chris Paul enters the game for Zach Collins110–112
- Q412.1Spurs Full timeout110–112
- Q412.1Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 2 of 2110–112
- Q412.1Zach Collins enters the game for Chris Paul110–111
- Q412.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound110–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:34Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)SA 101 – 101 MIN · MIN 38% → 56% +18MIN 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q43:31Rudy Gobert makes dunkSA 103 – 105 MIN · MIN 55% → 69% +15MIN 55% → 69%+15 pts
- Q42:59Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)SA 103 – 108 MIN · MIN 70% → 88% +17MIN 70% → 88%+17 pts
- Q418.0Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2SA 110 – 111 MIN · SA 9% → 24% +16SA 9% → 24%+16 pts
- Q412.1Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 2 of 2SA 110 – 112 MIN · MIN 80% → 95% +15MIN 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML SA +190 / MIN -230
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -202
- SA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 105.0 – 111.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | −16 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +85 Elo | MIN 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 107.14th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 109.520th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 107.36th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–15 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.