Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints39
- Dereck Lively IIAssists3
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–99
- Q40.0Anthony Edwards defensive rebound105–99
- Q40.1Maxi Kleber misses 21-foot two point shot105–99
- Q44.0Kyrie Irving offensive rebound105–99
- Q44.0Quentin Grimes misses 9-foot jumper105–99
- Q44.0Quentin Grimes offensive rebound105–99
- Q47.1Quentin Grimes misses 24-foot three point jumper105–99
- Q414.1Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2105–99
- Q414.1Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2104–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:47Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three pointer (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)MIN 45 – 38 DAL · DAL 36% → 44% +8DAL 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q42:55P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)MIN 99 – 94 DAL · DAL 6% → 17% +11DAL 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q41:17Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot two point shotMIN 101 – 96 DAL · MIN 81% → 94% +12MIN 81% → 94%+12 pts
- Q41:05Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)MIN 101 – 99 DAL · DAL 5% → 26% +22DAL 5% → 26%+22 pts
- Q418.1Anthony Edwards makes 2-foot two point shotMIN 103 – 99 DAL · MIN 90% → >99% +9MIN 90% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML MIN +175 / DAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 74.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -186
- MIN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.5 – 114.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +33 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +187 Elo | DAL 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.3 | Points scored | 118.85th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 112.013th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +6.86th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 116.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 109.911th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.3 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 10–47th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–17 | 18–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 11–8 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–6 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Oct 29DAL 120 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 61%Miss
- May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 26MIN 107 @ DAL 116PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Hit
- May 24DAL 109 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 22DAL 108 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- Jan 31DAL 87 @ MIN 121Picked MIN 80%Hit
- Jan 7MIN 108 @ DAL 115Picked MIN 52%Miss