Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints27
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints38
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–112
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards defensive rebound113–112
- Q41.1Fred VanVleet misses 26-foot three point jumper113–112
- Q423.0Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)113–112
- Q441.2Anthony Edwards defensive rebound110–112
- Q441.2Alperen Sengun misses free throw 2 of 2110–112
- Q441.2Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2110–112
- Q441.2Anthony Edwards shooting foul110–111
- Q457.1Julius Randle makes 2-foot driving dunk110–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:48Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 76 – 78 HOU · MIN 31% → 42% +11MIN 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q41:31Anthony Edwards makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 107 – 110 HOU · MIN 7% → 19% +12MIN 7% → 19%+12 pts
- Q457.1Julius Randle makes 2-foot driving dunkMIN 110 – 111 HOU · MIN 13% → 36% +22MIN 13% → 36%+22 pts
- Q441.2Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 110 – 112 HOU · HOU 67% → 81% +14HOU 67% → 81%+14 pts
- Q423.0Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 113 – 112 HOU · MIN 12% → 72% +60MIN 12% → 72%+60 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -0.5
- ML MIN -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.5 – 108.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | +30 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +75 Elo | HOU 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.1 | Points scored | 113.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 106.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +7.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 110.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 11–33rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+30 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–17 | 19–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 14–8 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.