Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints29
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds11
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints26
- Russell WestbrookAssists6
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–106
- Q48.2Jaylen Brown defensive rebound118–106
- Q411.1Julian Strawther misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–106
- Q419.0Jaden Springer personal foul118–106
- Q423.2Luke Kornet enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis118–106
- Q423.2Jaden Springer enters the game for Al Horford118–106
- Q423.2Hunter Tyson enters the game for Jamal Murray118–106
- Q423.2Trey Alexander enters the game for Peyton Watson118–106
- Q423.2Jalen Pickett enters the game for Russell Westbrook118–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:50Julian Strawther makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jamal Murray assists)BOS 88 – 88 DEN · DEN 24% → 35% +11DEN 24% → 35%+11 pts
- Q410:17Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 91 – 88 DEN · BOS 64% → 76% +12BOS 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q48:32Christian Braun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)BOS 93 – 93 DEN · DEN 24% → 37% +13DEN 24% → 37%+13 pts
- Q48:12Kristaps Porzingis makes dunkBOS 95 – 93 DEN · BOS 63% → 72% +9BOS 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q47:29Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 98 – 93 DEN · BOS 72% → 83% +12BOS 72% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -450 / DEN +350
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.3%, market 78.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -368
- DEN +368 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.0 – 110.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1654 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −118 | BOS: Missing Derrick White −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +176 Elo | BOS 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.3 | Points allowed | 117.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.2 | Margin | +3.58th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 115.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–4 | Road vs home | 10–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+21 Elo- Derrick White injury/illness−5 Elo
Nuggets
−118 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–21 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–2 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.