Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints27
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–115
- Q41.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound118–115
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot118–115
- Q43.0Naz Reid enters the game for Jaden McDaniels118–115
- Q43.0Timberwolves Full timeout118–115
- Q43.0Timberwolves Full timeout118–115
- Q43.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound118–115
- Q45.2Jayson Tatum misses 17-foot step back jumpshot118–115
- Q421.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Naz Reid118–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:16Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)BOS 94 – 94 MIN · MIN 34% → 47% +14MIN 34% → 47%+14 pts
- Q48:24Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)BOS 96 – 97 MIN · MIN 38% → 52% +15MIN 38% → 52%+15 pts
- Q47:25Jayson Tatum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 101 – 98 MIN · BOS 52% → 68% +15BOS 52% → 68%+15 pts
- Q45:35Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)BOS 105 – 103 MIN · MIN 21% → 36% +15MIN 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q45:13Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 108 – 103 MIN · BOS 64% → 80% +16BOS 64% → 80%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML BOS -140 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.5 – 107.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | −20 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −29 · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +37 Elo | BOS 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 109.222nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 107.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.7 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 109.520th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 107.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–3 | Road vs home | 9–615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−33 Elo- Jaylen Brown right shoulder−29 Elo
Timberwolves
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–20 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–19 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.