Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints16
- Davion MitchellAssists3
- Scottie BarnesRebounds13
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints23
- Payton PritchardAssists4
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game71–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter71–125
- Q417.0Ulrich Chomche makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jamison Battle assists)71–125
- Q432.1Neemias Queta makes dunk (Jaden Springer assists)69–125
- Q443.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound69–123
- Q445.1A.J. Lawson misses 23-foot three point jumper69–123
- Q41:01Drew Peterson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)69–123
- Q41:16Jamal Shead makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot69–120
- Q41:38Jordan Walsh makes driving layup67–120
- Q41:55Celtics defensive team rebound67–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:12Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)TOR 6 – 5 BOS · BOS 85% → 89% +3BOS 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q15:34Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three pointer (Al Horford assists)TOR 6 – 8 BOS · BOS 89% → 92% +3BOS 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q14:26Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)TOR 8 – 13 BOS · BOS 91% → 94% +2BOS 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q21:25Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 33 – 40 BOS · TOR 4% → 7% +2TOR 4% → 7%+2 pts
- Q20.1Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)TOR 35 – 45 BOS · BOS 93% → 96% +3BOS 93% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -16.5
- ML TOR +1000 / BOS -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 85.9%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1048
- TOR +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.5 – 124.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −10 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +314 Elo | BOS 85.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 88.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 87.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 110.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.8 | Margin | +9.43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 108.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–14 | Road vs home | 12–68th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–12 | 12–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–5 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.