Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints19
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints44
- Payton PritchardAssists10
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–142
- Q416.2Drew Peterson defensive rebound105–142
- Q417.1Neemias Queta blocks Enrique Freeman 's 3-foot layup105–142
- Q425.1Enrique Freeman defensive rebound105–142
- Q428.2Jordan Walsh misses 26-foot three point jumper105–142
- Q429.1Drew Peterson offensive rebound105–142
- Q430.1James Johnson blocks Xavier Tillman 's 2-foot layup105–142
- Q445.0Jaden Springer defensive rebound105–142
- Q447.1Johnny Furphy misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot105–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)IND 2 – 6 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q18:40Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 7 – 8 BOS · IND 14% → 17% +4IND 14% → 17%+4 pts
- Q17:12Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 7 – 11 BOS · BOS 82% → 86% +4BOS 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q15:36Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)IND 11 – 16 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q14:16Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)IND 13 – 21 BOS · BOS 87% → 90% +3BOS 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML IND +425 / BOS -650
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 77.3%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -455
- IND +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 121.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −12 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +213 Elo | BOS 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 118.94th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 109.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +9.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 117.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 108.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 11–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–18 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–7 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Oct 30BOS 132 @ IND 135Picked BOS 70%Miss
- May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 25BOS 114 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 23IND 110 @ BOS 126PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- May 21IND 128 @ BOS 133PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- Jan 30IND 124 @ BOS 129Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Jan 8BOS 131 @ IND 133Picked BOS 56%Miss
- Jan 6BOS 118 @ IND 101Picked BOS 55%Hit