Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints45
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–114
- Q43.0Andrew Nembhard makes 2-foot two point shot120–114
- Q47.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q47.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2119–112
- Q47.1Tyrese Haliburton personal take foul118–112
- Q49.1Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)118–112
- Q411.0Andrew Nembhard offensive rebound118–109
- Q413.1Myles Turner misses 26-foot three point jumper118–109
- Q421.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2118–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:20Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 98 – 99 IND · OKC 34% → 50% +17OKC 34% → 50%+17 pts
- Q45:21Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 103 – 100 IND · OKC 55% → 73% +17OKC 55% → 73%+17 pts
- Q45:08Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)OKC 103 – 103 IND · IND 27% → 45% +18IND 27% → 45%+18 pts
- Q42:32Jalen Williams makes 4-foot two point shotOKC 107 – 107 IND · OKC 36% → 54% +18OKC 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q459.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three pointer (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 114 – 109 IND · OKC 78% → 97% +19OKC 78% → 97%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -220 / IND +180
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 73.1%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -192
- IND +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 111.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1675 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −14 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | OKC crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +173 Elo | OKC 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 114.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.9 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.0 | Margin | −1.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 112.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.3 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–3 | Road vs home | 8–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–11 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–11 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 0–2 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.