Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints31
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds16
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints41
- Jalen WilliamsAssists4
- Ajay MitchellRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–123
- Q41.1Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound105–123
- Q41.1Richaun Holmes misses 9-foot pullup jump shot105–123
- Q42.2Richaun Holmes offensive rebound105–123
- Q46.1Jaylin Williams blocks Jared Butler 's 5-foot driving layup105–123
- Q428.2Aaron Wiggins makes layup (Jaylin Williams assists)105–123
- Q442.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 1-foot layup (Johnny Davis assists)105–121
- Q444.0Johnny Davis defensive rebound103–121
- Q447.1Tristan Vukcevic blocks Ousmane Dieng 's 2-foot layup103–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:10Kyshawn George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 37 – 29 OKC · WSH 18% → 24% +5WSH 18% → 24%+5 pts
- Q210:45Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)WSH 37 – 32 OKC · OKC 76% → 81% +5OKC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q33:59Jordan Poole makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Marvin Bagley III assists)WSH 82 – 84 OKC · WSH 10% → 16% +6WSH 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q33:17Kyshawn George makes three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 85 – 88 OKC · WSH 9% → 14% +5WSH 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q411:46Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)WSH 87 – 94 OKC · OKC 87% → 92% +6OKC 87% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -17.5
- ML WSH +1100 / OKC -2500
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14
- OKC 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 90.6%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1154
- WSH +1154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 104.5 – 122.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1308 | 1673 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −5 | WSH: Usual rotation · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +394 Elo | OKC 90.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 91.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 90.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 113.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 102.91st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.7 | Margin | +10.72nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.1 | Offense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 101.41st of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.2 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 10–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–16 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 16–11 |
| Underdog | 10–16 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.