Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints31
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Andrew NembhardRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–114
- Q41.0Drew Peterson makes 3-foot layup (Jaden Springer assists)123–114
- Q43.2Jordan Walsh defensive rebound123–112
- Q46.1Quenton Jackson misses driving layup123–112
- Q430.1Neemias Queta makes two point shot123–112
- Q431.1Neemias Queta offensive rebound123–110
- Q434.2Xavier Tillman misses 23-foot three point jumper123–110
- Q447.0Jordan Walsh defensive rebound123–110
- Q448.2Ben Sheppard misses 27-foot three point jumper123–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:20Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerIND 95 – 88 BOS · BOS 30% → 41% +11BOS 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q326.1Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerIND 98 – 91 BOS · BOS 28% → 39% +11BOS 28% → 39%+11 pts
- Q48:24Al Horford makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)IND 105 – 100 BOS · BOS 26% → 40% +13BOS 26% → 40%+13 pts
- Q47:13Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 107 – 103 BOS · IND 47% → 58% +11IND 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q46:38Ben Sheppard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 110 – 103 BOS · IND 59% → 74% +15IND 59% → 74%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML IND +400 / BOS -525
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.1%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -420
- IND +420 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.0 – 121.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | −3 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +221 Elo | BOS 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 119.64th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 109.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.4 | Margin | +10.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 108.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–12 | Road vs home | 12–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–19 | 12–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–8 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Dec 27IND 105 @ BOS 142Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Oct 30BOS 132 @ IND 135Picked BOS 70%Miss
- May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 25BOS 114 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 23IND 110 @ BOS 126PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- May 21IND 128 @ BOS 133PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- Jan 30IND 124 @ BOS 129Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Jan 8BOS 131 @ IND 133Picked BOS 56%Miss