Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints20
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Naz ReidRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–113
- Q419.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker bad pass (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)105–113
- Q420.1Timberwolves Full timeout105–113
- Q420.1Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2105–113
- Q420.1Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2105–112
- Q420.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foul105–111
- Q425.1Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound105–111
- Q429.0Anthony Edwards misses running pullup jump shot105–111
- Q432.0Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:18Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MIN 68 – 69 OKC · OKC 55% → 65% +10OKC 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q43:55Donte DiVincenzo makes 28-foot three pointerMIN 99 – 103 OKC · MIN 8% → 19% +11MIN 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q43:14Naz Reid makes two point shotMIN 101 – 104 OKC · MIN 13% → 23% +10MIN 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q42:51Isaiah Hartenstein makes 1-foot dunk (Cason Wallace assists)MIN 101 – 106 OKC · OKC 78% → 88% +11OKC 78% → 88%+11 pts
- Q41:48Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MIN 103 – 109 OKC · OKC 82% → 96% +14OKC 82% → 96%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML MIN +215 / OKC -260
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.0%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -228
- MIN +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 105.5 – 112.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1693 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +3 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +191 Elo | OKC 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.3 | Points scored | 114.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 103.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +11.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 112.39th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 101.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 12–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–18 | 20–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 19–12 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.