Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints22
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints19
- Miles BridgesAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–94
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound106–94
- Q40.0Isaiah Wong misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot106–94
- Q44.1shot clock turnover106–94
- Q428.1Moussa Diabate bad pass (Jaylin Williams steals)106–94
- Q431.1Jaylin Williams bad pass (Josh Green steals)106–94
- Q445.1Miles Bridges out of bounds lost ball turnover106–94
- Q456.2Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2106–94
- Q456.2Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander105–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:28Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)OKC 5 – 0 CHA · OKC 90% → 92% +3OKC 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q211:03Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Wong assists)OKC 30 – 25 CHA · CHA 7% → 9% +3CHA 7% → 9%+3 pts
- Q28:06Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)OKC 36 – 33 CHA · CHA 9% → 12% +3CHA 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q26:21Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 40 – 36 CHA · CHA 8% → 12% +3CHA 8% → 12%+3 pts
- Q24:06Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 50 – 40 CHA · OKC 92% → 94% +3OKC 92% → 94%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML OKC -1200 / CHA +700
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13
- OKC 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 89.1%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -738
- CHA +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.0 – 100.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1679 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | −4 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +365 Elo | OKC 89.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 88.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 88.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 106.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.3 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.8 | Margin | −6.526th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 106.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.7 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 5–1126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–11 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.