Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints31
- Brandon MillerAssists9
- Miles BridgesRebounds14
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints25
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–113
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound110–113
- Q40.0Miles Bridges misses 83-foot three point jumper110–113
- Q41.1Miles Bridges defensive rebound110–113
- Q41.1Justin Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2110–113
- Q41.1Mark Williams enters the game for Cody Martin110–113
- Q41.1Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 2110–113
- Q41.1Josh Green personal foul110–112
- Q41.1Justin Champagnie defensive rebound110–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:55Bilal Coulibaly makes 28-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)CHA 106 – 105 WSH · WSH 18% → 38% +21WSH 18% → 38%+21 pts
- Q41:21Miles Bridges makes two point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 108 – 107 WSH · CHA 40% → 64% +24CHA 40% → 64%+24 pts
- Q415.1Alexandre Sarr makes tip shotCHA 108 – 109 WSH · WSH 23% → 76% +53WSH 23% → 76%+53 pts
- Q412.1Mark Williams makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 110 – 109 WSH · CHA 22% → 80% +58CHA 22% → 80%+58 pts
- Q48.1Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Malcolm Brogdon assists)CHA 110 – 112 WSH · WSH 16% → 97% +82WSH 16% → 97%+82 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML CHA -190 / WSH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2.5
- CHA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHA: Elo 60.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHA -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 118.0 – 113.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1306 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −57 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +71 Elo | CHA 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 107.425th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 122.230th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.6 | Margin | −14.830th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 102.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 117.029th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 104.34th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 3–1029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–14 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.