Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints22
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists6
- John KoncharRebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–130
- Q420.1Cam Spencer defensive rebound106–130
- Q424.0Aaron Wiggins misses 25-foot three point jumper106–130
- Q436.0Thunder defensive team rebound106–130
- Q439.1Luke Kennard misses 25-foot three point jumper106–130
- Q448.1Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound106–130
- Q450.1Ousmane Dieng misses 17-foot step back jumpshot106–130
- Q41:06Jaylin Williams defensive rebound106–130
- Q41:10Luke Kennard misses 25-foot three point jumper106–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:38Jay Huff makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 22 – 17 OKC · MEM 34% → 40% +6MEM 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q13:04Ajay Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MEM 23 – 20 OKC · OKC 57% → 64% +7OKC 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q12:28Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MEM 26 – 23 OKC · OKC 57% → 64% +7OKC 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q12:06Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 29 – 23 OKC · MEM 36% → 43% +7MEM 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q11:54Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 29 – 26 OKC · OKC 57% → 64% +7OKC 57% → 64%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML MEM +245 / OKC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.6%, market 72.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -259
- MEM +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 122.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1681 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +45 | +4 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +97 Elo | OKC 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 72.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.0 | Points scored | 113.811th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 103.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.3 | Margin | +10.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 112.110th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 101.51st of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Pace | 101.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 11–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+45 Elo- Brandon Clarke right knee soreness−11 Elo
Thunder
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–10 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–8 | 18–12 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 20–12 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–3 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.