Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints26
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–105
- Q46.1shot clock turnover92–105
- Q429.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound92–105
- Q431.2Jayson Tatum misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot92–105
- Q440.2Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)92–105
- Q459.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 292–102
- Q459.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 291–102
- Q459.1Jalen Williams personal foul90–102
- Q41:02Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot pullup jump shot90–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:18Aaron Wiggins makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)BOS 80 – 79 OKC · OKC 33% → 46% +13OKC 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q48:57Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 83 – 83 OKC · BOS 36% → 50% +14BOS 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q47:14Jayson Tatum makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick White assists)BOS 85 – 85 OKC · BOS 39% → 50% +11BOS 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q46:28Luguentz Dort makes 1-foot dunkBOS 85 – 89 OKC · OKC 61% → 71% +10OKC 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q45:57Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 85 – 92 OKC · OKC 72% → 85% +13OKC 72% → 85%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -0.5
- ML BOS -110 / OKC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 60.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.5 – 113.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1664 | 1711 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +19 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +76 Elo | OKC 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 114.411th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 103.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.9 | Margin | +11.32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 112.79th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 101.61st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.410th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–3 | Road vs home | 15–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–20 | 23–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 22–12 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.