Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints23
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Luke KornetRebounds10
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists3
- Alperen SengunRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–86
- Q413.0Cam Whitmore makes free throw 2 of 2109–86
- Q413.0Cam Whitmore makes free throw 1 of 2109–85
- Q413.0Jaden Springer shooting foul109–84
- Q416.1Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (Reed Sheppard steals)109–84
- Q441.1Cam Whitmore makes 8-foot two point shot109–84
- Q449.2Neemias Queta makes 4-foot dunk (Drew Peterson assists)109–82
- Q41:11Jock Landale makes free throw 1 of 1107–82
- Q41:11Neemias Queta shooting foul107–81
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:05Derrick White makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 40 – 35 HOU · BOS 64% → 71% +7BOS 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q25:22Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumperBOS 52 – 45 HOU · BOS 69% → 75% +7BOS 69% → 75%+7 pts
- Q25:10Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 52 – 48 HOU · HOU 25% → 31% +7HOU 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q23:50Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Whitmore assists)BOS 53 – 51 HOU · HOU 29% → 36% +7HOU 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q21:07Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 60 – 54 HOU · BOS 66% → 74% +7BOS 66% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -3.5
- ML BOS -175 / HOU +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -156
- HOU +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.5 – 109.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | +4 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −20, Tari Eason −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 112.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 106.43rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.5 | Margin | +6.56th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 110.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 12–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+4 Elo- Amen Thompson suspended by league−20 Elo
- Tari Eason left leg injury−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–20 | 20–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–18 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.