Miami Heat at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints27
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints22
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–100
- Q41.1Dillon Brooks makes 29-foot three pointer104–100
- Q44.0Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2104–97
- Q44.0Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2103–97
- Q44.0Aaron Holiday personal take foul102–97
- Q46.0Cam Whitmore makes 27-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)102–97
- Q49.2Alperen Sengun defensive rebound102–94
- Q412.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 17-foot two point shot102–94
- Q433.2Alec Burks makes free throw 1 of 1102–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:26Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)MIA 83 – 87 HOU · HOU 66% → 77% +11HOU 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q44:47Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 92 – 92 HOU · MIA 24% → 42% +18MIA 24% → 42%+18 pts
- Q42:47Dillon Brooks makes driving layup (Fred VanVleet assists)MIA 93 – 94 HOU · HOU 48% → 65% +17HOU 48% → 65%+17 pts
- Q41:56Tyler Herro makes 9-foot two point shotMIA 95 – 94 HOU · MIA 35% → 55% +20MIA 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q447.1Nikola Jovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)MIA 98 – 94 HOU · MIA 63% → 94% +31MIA 63% → 94%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML MIA +270 / HOU -340
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -286
- MIA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 104.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +16 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +146 Elo | HOU 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 113.412th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 106.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +6.76th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 110.616th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–9 | Road vs home | 11–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−15 Elo- Jimmy Butler III return to competition reconditioning−43 Elo
Rockets
+16 Elo- Tari Eason lower leg−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–17 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.