Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Quentin GrimesPoints17
- Dereck Lively IIAssists6
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds7
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints23
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–110
- Q41.1shot clock turnover99–110
- Q425.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 3-foot two point shot99–110
- Q426.2Cam Whitmore lost ball turnover (Olivier-Maxence Prosper steals)97–110
- Q451.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot97–110
- Q41:01Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound95–110
- Q41:02Dwight Powell blocks Jae'Sean Tate 's 5-foot driving layup95–110
- Q41:22Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Alperen Sengun95–110
- Q41:22Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Fred VanVleet95–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:20Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 37 – 28 HOU · DAL 53% → 61% +7DAL 53% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:12Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 40 – 30 HOU · DAL 56% → 64% +7DAL 56% → 64%+7 pts
- Q25:20Cam Whitmore makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Dillon Brooks assists)DAL 44 – 45 HOU · HOU 56% → 63% +8HOU 56% → 63%+8 pts
- Q21:25Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 52 – 55 HOU · DAL 25% → 32% +7DAL 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q246.0Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Cam Whitmore assists)DAL 52 – 58 HOU · HOU 68% → 75% +7HOU 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML DAL +165 / HOU -200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -177
- DAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −9 | DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −18, Tari Eason −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +55 Elo | HOU 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 113.012th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +6.46th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 110.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−47 Elo- Naji Marshall not with team−1 Elo
Rockets
−9 Elo- Amen Thompson not with team−18 Elo
- Tari Eason left leg injury−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–14 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 14–10 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.