Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints20
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- Maxi KleberRebounds7
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Mason PlumleeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–89
- Q413.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound98–89
- Q415.1Damion Lee misses 17-foot pullup jump shot98–89
- Q428.0Josh Okogie defensive rebound98–89
- Q430.2Jaden Hardy misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot98–89
- Q444.1Damion Lee makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Monte Morris assists)98–89
- Q452.1Jazian Gortman enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie98–87
- Q452.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for Maxi Kleber98–87
- Q452.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Klay Thompson98–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q152.0Josh Okogie makes 25-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)DAL 28 – 25 PHX · PHX 37% → 44% +7PHX 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q27:02Ryan Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)DAL 40 – 33 PHX · PHX 27% → 33% +7PHX 27% → 33%+7 pts
- Q411:39Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Dwight Powell assists)DAL 75 – 64 PHX · DAL 80% → 87% +8DAL 80% → 87%+8 pts
- Q46:32Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)DAL 81 – 75 PHX · PHX 10% → 20% +10PHX 10% → 20%+10 pts
- Q46:11Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 84 – 75 PHX · DAL 81% → 90% +10DAL 81% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -0.5
- ML DAL -105 / PHX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- PHX 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- PHX: Elo 43.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.0 – 111.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −74 | −50 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +43 Elo | DAL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 113.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 114.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −1.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 113.97th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 115.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 10–613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–12 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.