Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Spencer DinwiddiePoints30
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Quentin GrimesRebounds7
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints33
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–110
- Q49.2Alex Len defensive rebound100–110
- Q412.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses layup100–110
- Q425.1Alex Len makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)100–110
- Q445.0Brandon Williams makes 17-foot jumper100–108
- Q451.0Dwight Powell defensive rebound98–108
- Q453.0Alex Len misses layup98–108
- Q453.1Alex Len offensive rebound98–108
- Q455.1Alex Len misses layup98–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:56DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DAL 42 – 33 SAC · SAC 41% → 48% +7SAC 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q25:50Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)DAL 44 – 43 SAC · SAC 59% → 67% +7SAC 59% → 67%+7 pts
- Q38:45Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point shot (Quentin Grimes assists)DAL 67 – 60 SAC · DAL 46% → 56% +9DAL 46% → 56%+9 pts
- Q34:11Trey Lyles makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)DAL 75 – 70 SAC · SAC 36% → 47% +10SAC 36% → 47%+10 pts
- Q31:33Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (De'Aaron Fox assists)DAL 77 – 81 SAC · SAC 67% → 77% +10SAC 67% → 77%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML DAL +260 / SAC -330
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 54.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -276
- DAL +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.0 – 115.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −157 | +5 | DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +32 Elo | SAC 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 115.09th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 114.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 113.08th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 6–1225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−157 Elo- Naji Marshall suspended by league−10 Elo
Kings
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–13 | 11–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.