Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints46
- Maxi KleberAssists5
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints23
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–126
- Q46.2Jaden Hardy makes 22-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)122–126
- Q416.0Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
- Q416.0Jaden Hardy enters the game for Maxi Kleber119–125
- Q416.0Kessler Edwards enters the game for Klay Thompson119–125
- Q416.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie119–125
- Q416.0Dwight Powell enters the game for Kyrie Irving119–125
- Q416.0Jazian Gortman enters the game for Quentin Grimes119–125
- Q416.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound119–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:05Kyrie Irving makes 30-foot jump bank shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 95 – 102 POR · DAL 13% → 23% +9DAL 13% → 23%+9 pts
- Q46:38Klay Thompson makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 101 – 106 POR · DAL 18% → 27% +8DAL 18% → 27%+8 pts
- Q45:59Deandre Ayton makes alley oop layupDAL 101 – 108 POR · POR 75% → 83% +8POR 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q44:58Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Deni Avdija assists)DAL 104 – 111 POR · POR 77% → 86% +9POR 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q43:14Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 109 – 115 POR · DAL 4% → 12% +8DAL 4% → 12%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML DAL -150 / POR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 68.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- POR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.5 – 110.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1359 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −71 | −12 | DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Dalano Banton −7 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +131 Elo | DAL 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 107.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 116.923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.5 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 106.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 115.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 7–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−71 Elo- Naji Marshall suspended by league−7 Elo
Trail Blazers
−12 Elo- Dalano Banton left hip injury−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–12 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–0 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.