Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints36
- Austin ReavesAssists16
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–132
- Q422.2Keegan Murray out of bounds bad pass turnover122–132
- Q428.1Malik Monk offensive rebound122–132
- Q431.2DeMar DeRozan misses 24-foot three point jumper122–132
- Q437.2Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2122–132
- Q437.2Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2122–131
- Q437.2Malik Monk personal take foul122–130
- Q448.1Trey Lyles out of bounds bad pass turnover122–130
- Q451.0Rui Hachimura personal foul122–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:22Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)SAC 68 – 68 LAL · LAL 35% → 43% +9LAL 35% → 43%+9 pts
- Q310:14Domantas Sabonis makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 74 – 71 LAL · SAC 56% → 65% +9SAC 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q38:20Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)SAC 78 – 84 LAL · LAL 53% → 63% +9LAL 53% → 63%+9 pts
- Q35:19Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 83 – 90 LAL · SAC 23% → 32% +9SAC 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q46:54Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three pointer (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 108 – 115 LAL · SAC 10% → 19% +9SAC 10% → 19%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML SAC -165 / LAL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- SAC: Elo 51.8%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -146
- LAL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.0 – 108.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −100 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +12 Elo | SAC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 111.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 113.819th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.520th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 110.814th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 9–48th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–20 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–3 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.