LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Amir CoffeyPoints26
- Jordan MillerAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–116
- Q41.1shot clock turnover98–116
- Q426.1Amir Coffey makes two point shot98–116
- Q433.1Kobe Brown defensive rebound96–116
- Q435.1Aaron Wiggins misses 25-foot three point jumper96–116
- Q446.0Dillon Jones defensive rebound96–116
- Q449.0Jordan Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper96–116
- Q41:05Kai Jones defensive rebound96–116
- Q41:07Aaron Wiggins misses 25-foot three point jumper96–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:17Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 47 – 35 OKC · LAC 44% → 52% +8LAC 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q24:00Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)LAC 47 – 38 OKC · OKC 48% → 56% +8OKC 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q21:52Isaiah Joe makes 31-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAC 49 – 43 OKC · OKC 54% → 62% +8OKC 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q231.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 51 – 46 OKC · OKC 55% → 64% +8OKC 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q310:59Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)LAC 55 – 52 OKC · LAC 24% → 32% +8LAC 24% → 32%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML LAC +500 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8.5
- OKC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 79.6%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -533
- LAC +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 102.0 – 114.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1697 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −57 | +7 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +237 Elo | OKC 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 114.311th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 103.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +11.22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 101.41st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 10th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 13–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–13 | 21–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 20–12 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–4 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.