New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds22
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–117
- Q41.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound107–117
- Q41.1Josh Hart misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–117
- Q48.1Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)107–117
- Q426.1Jalen Brunson makes driving layup (Mikal Bridges assists)107–114
- Q429.1Knicks Full timeout105–114
- Q429.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2105–114
- Q429.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2105–113
- Q429.1Jalen Brunson personal foul105–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:15Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 91 – 92 OKC · OKC 45% → 60% +15OKC 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q45:22Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)NY 97 – 97 OKC · OKC 35% → 54% +18OKC 35% → 54%+18 pts
- Q44:13Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)NY 99 – 100 OKC · OKC 39% → 60% +21OKC 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q43:46Karl-Anthony Towns makes 5-foot two point shotNY 101 – 100 OKC · NY 40% → 54% +15NY 40% → 54%+15 pts
- Q43:30Aaron Wiggins makes 1-foot layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)NY 101 – 102 OKC · OKC 45% → 61% +15OKC 45% → 61%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML NY +145 / OKC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 56.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -156
- NY +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 109.5 – 114.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1702 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +53 | +7 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +43 Elo | OKC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 114.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 103.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.2 | Margin | +11.42nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 112.611th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 101.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 14–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–16 | 22–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 21–12 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 0–2 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.