Utah Jazz at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints25
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds10
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints31
- Josh HartAssists12
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–119
- Q416.1Collin Sexton makes tip shot103–119
- Q416.1Collin Sexton offensive rebound101–119
- Q418.1Lauri Markkanen misses 24-foot three point jumper101–119
- Q431.1Mikal Bridges makes 10-foot two point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)101–119
- Q454.1Johnny Juzang makes free throw 2 of 2101–117
- Q454.1Johnny Juzang makes free throw 1 of 2100–117
- Q454.1OG Anunoby loose ball foul99–117
- Q454.1Jazz defensive team rebound99–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:35Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)UTAH 15 – 8 NY · UTAH 24% → 29% +5UTAH 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q37:13Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)UTAH 61 – 69 NY · NY 85% → 90% +5NY 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q35:11OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)UTAH 68 – 76 NY · NY 85% → 90% +5NY 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q33:01Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 73 – 77 NY · UTAH 11% → 18% +6UTAH 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q332.0Josh Hart makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 76 – 85 NY · NY 87% → 92% +5NY 87% → 92%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -11.5
- ML UTAH +500 / NY -700
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9.5
- NY 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NY: Elo 82.8%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -525
- UTAH +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 108.5 – 120.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −40 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −77 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +272 Elo | NY 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 82.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.0 | Points scored | 117.85th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 109.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.8 | Margin | +8.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 119.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 111.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 25th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 10–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−40 Elo- Jalen Brunson right calf−77 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–16 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 14–16 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–1 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.