New York Knicks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints55
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Wizards- Justin ChampagniePoints31
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game136–132
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime136–132
- OT0.0Wizards offensive team rebound136–132
- OT0.0Jonas Valanciunas misses 22-foot two point shot136–132
- OT0.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2136–132
- OT0.1Kyshawn George enters the game for Justin Champagnie135–132
- OT0.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly135–132
- OT0.1Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2135–132
- OT0.1Bilal Coulibaly personal foul134–132
- OT0.1Josh Hart defensive rebound134–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:42Justin Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)NY 107 – 114 WSH · WSH 63% → 79% +17WSH 63% → 79%+17 pts
- Q43:24Justin Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)NY 111 – 117 WSH · WSH 62% → 81% +20WSH 62% → 81%+20 pts
- Q43:10OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 114 – 117 WSH · NY 18% → 37% +20NY 18% → 37%+20 pts
- Q411.1Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotNY 119 – 119 WSH · NY 5% → 53% +47NY 5% → 53%+47 pts
- OT20.1Malcolm Brogdon makes two point shotNY 130 – 129 WSH · WSH 2% → 24% +21WSH 2% → 24%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML NY -1000 / WSH +600
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10.5
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- NY: Elo 84.2%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -636
- WSH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 119.0 – 105.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1313 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −49 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +291 Elo | NY 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 107.626th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 121.830th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −14.230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 103.030th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.529th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 104.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 4–1027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–15 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.